I have received a copy of latest Economic and Market analysis done by City group, according to the report, Sri Lanka’s economy remains resilient. Its economic growth is likely to remain around 6% in 2007 despite the ongoing spending on war, political issues and a devastating tsunami in 2004. Moreover, Sri Lanka is the first South Asian economy with a per-capita income of over US$1000; besides, country has the highest inflation and fiscal deficit in the sub-continent…, (see the below graph), since countries Rupee was allowed to float since early 2001, following the removal of administrative controls., under the present exchange rate system, forces of demand and supply in the market determine the rate. Central bank only intervenes to prevent excessive volatility and maintain a comfortable level of reserves. Anyone can weigh these statistics and come to their own conclusions, people live in the country have a better judgment than living aboard. Arguably, countries development is moving forward with more than an acceptable level with a huge military expenditure. In other hand corruption and criminal influence on the political system have increased, some argue government is attacking moderates who are critical of its approach and has given room to nationalist extremists, who incite further communal strife.
In reality LTTE is struggling to survive both militarily and politically, yet most of the media remain far from realism primarily after the censorship. After supply routes being cut off, eastern administration being toppled, EU and Canadian ban on the terrorist outfit, dishearten Diaspora; tigers working hard with their propaganda machinery to bring their lost face. Politically bankrupt tigers in a tenuous situation to come forward for negotiation. After the death of their chief strategist they pushed into a corner with no other choice, since `80’s LTTE never came to the negotiation table with a weak position and they will never ever. Million dollar question is will tigers ever compromise with the Prabakaran’s leadership? Will he ever agree for a second best? But governments APRC is pushing for a political solution with power devolution, anyhow with a majority agreed solution, will there be a trust and goodwill between these two groups where LTTE to drop their arms and come to democratic stream and get elected by the people? Highly unlikely with the current climate especially after GoSL vowed to defeat LTTE militarily within 2-3 years. Majority of the country may support that coz that is the fastest route to end this ongoing bloodshed. However, moderates worried about the impact to the economy, international isolation, rising inflation etc., as a developing country, can Sri Lanka cope with this war for another couple of years without international support? I would say YES only if we unite as Sri Lankans, Synergistic power is a vital tool at this crucial juncture, but in reality power hungry opposition and other rebellious parties and their allies trying t0 fish in the troubled waters.
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How is war Ever won?
For most of us, this war is another subject to ‘talk’ about at the end of the day. But for those who ‘live it’ and ‘die because of it’ it is a different story. Sons and daughters are being killed needlessly, mothers- forever grieving and cursing, overnight citizens are made refugees, millions that could be spent on infrastructure and welfare lost to petty fighting, thousands lose their motherland.
War not only causes physical carnage and destruction but emotional. The unseen damage is the most dangerous- it fosters generations of hatred, suspicion and ill will. What purpose does war ever serve, other than satisfy egoistical needs of some foolish men who think that by guns they can rule?
Optimistically the SL government may well succeed in cornering the rebels but I really doubt Prabhakaran would ever give up arms and come to the negotiation table made so weak. The developed nations will probably maintain their anti-LTTE view, but this may well have the effect of the Tiger’s diaspora support becoming more sympathetic to the rebel’s so called ‘cause’.
It is unlikely that a propaganda war, as that carried on by the LTTE and their diaspora support can ever be completely eradicated. It needs only the slightest spark by one ignorant person and the winds of the information age will fuel.
In any case the damage is already done. More and more we are losing the value of human life…we may as well be immune now.
Politically motivated military offensive will only bring anarchy to the country and citizens. Most of the anti-war preachers acting far from the reality, it is not war with Tamil people nor ethnic cleansing of minorities in the country. The battle is between democratically elected government forces and a brutal non-state actor. LTTE have shown their true colors by forcibly recruiting children for their war machine, by killing as many as intellectual Tamils including anyone who opposed to their separatist goals and also killing thousands of innocent civilians by suicide bombs, moreover by continually provoked majority by bombing sacred places and killing counties leaders and potential leaders. Surely LTTE operates with a clear vision but a uses a brutal path to achieve it, if they're not willing to compromise for a political solution, GoSL should genuinely offer a political solution with acceptable level of power devolution for the minority who accepts it.
Political solution is the way to go but eradicating terrorism should be on top of the agenda. Did Lord Nelson ever discuss peace with Napoleon? Hitler was not crushed by discussions but by the fierce force of the allied force, Vietnam had to get rid of the invading USA with utter military tactics. It took thirty years for the MI6 to infiltrate the hierarchy of the IRA and cause unexpected de-stabilization of the top brass and anxiety within-a sheer military campaign. Hard core entities should be militarily paralyzed if not crushed if they're not willing to compromise for a acceptable solution.
Sri Lanka’s failed public diplomacy results in reduction of U.S. Economic Assistance and suspension of Military Aid for 2008
This is something I read in asian tribune recenty. Its is wellknown fact that some members of the GOSL has foulmouthed their foolish ideas and accusations towards the rest of the world. It is very clear these politicians are using the current war situation to pretend as patriots of the Sri Lankan nation by accusing the well respected UN and NGO officials
as "terrorists" or LTTE sympethisers.
Conducting a war to protect the country from terrorist activities is a different act to solving a ethnic solution. If someone interprets that ethnic solution can be solved by war within 2 - 3 years, and stop the bloodshed they should think wisely.
Defeating LTTE could be a achievable target, but the long term target should be acceptable power devolution. That power devolution has to be based on federal framework, which must establish maximum power devolution to all the communities in Sri Lanka. It is highly unlikely to eliminate LTTE totally and giving a solution to other groups such as EPRLF, Devananda and rest of the tamil groups. It's obvious that LTTE does not represent all the tamils in Sri Lanka , but it is highly unlikely to achive a viable solution without having LTTE on the negotiation table.
The simple fact we have to understand is we are a underdeveloped country which needs the maximum backing of the developed world to achieve our economic, political and social targets. Sri Lanka is neither India nor china to dictate the world and its leaders. Thats how lot of asian countries became strong economically and politically. International isolation wil have massive impact on our economy and on the whole country.
Kasun, Thanks for sharing your thoughts…
I do agree with you with regard to GoSLs` lack of public diplomacy and ineptitude in handling international relations. Although it is a fact that national jingoism continues to play a significant role over the globalization in so called developed nations yet countries like SL needs to balance the trade-off between international isolation and their political ideology.
The real problem is how effectively GoSL can fight strategically with LTTEs modus operandi. It's not just war…. It's a fact that LTTE wants to topple the government and bring political instability to the country to achieve their objectives. When LTTE leaders openly threaten to attack military and economic targets (innocent civilians) there is legitimate right for a democratically elected government to crush the LTTE with any means. If someone or an entity (stakeholder for the country) unable to distinguish and differentiate Tamils problems as opposed to LTTEs terrorisms would not be able to think of any lasting solution. Simply coz LTTE only have little representation coz they carry weapons and killing their own people while forcibly recruiting deprived children for their loosing war. It is high time for these so called INGOs to pressurize separatist to open their doors for observation. Tamils live in an open prison with less or no human rights in Wanni and they don't have a voice in front of LTTEs guns. This is the place Tamils have more grievances.. Whoever wants to leave Wanni should let flee with there beloved to a liberated area and then these so called INGOs can provide assistance to them.
It is a fact that GoSL does not have a mandate for a federal solution nor legitimate right to divide the country based on ethnicity. A referendum would be necessary to decide what level of power devolution would acceptable for the country. Let majority decide where to draw the line. I have serious doubts with negotiating with LTTE coz there is no longer a reason for that. LTTE only wants to drag negotiation to strengthen themselves for achieve their mythical homeland. This happened since Thimpu talks to the last year round where LTTE refused to sit on the negotiation table.
LTTE and their sympathizes who comes with different faces finds extremely difficult to survive for the first time with the existence of the current regime. As you read there are many conspiracies going on to stop aid to the country, discredit the government.. Only LTTE and their sympathizes including opposition enjoy while your and mine kith and kin suffers with rising cost of living. It is a shame for people who enjoy bringing misery to civilians in order to achieve t heir political survival.
GoSL does not have a clear vision or does not want to give a political solution until they militarily disable LTTE until they agree for a compromise. It's a fact that LTTE terrorists have killed more Tamils and their politicians than any organization in the world. It is highly unlikely that democratic Tamil political parties could operate freely until LTTE carries arms. Further LTTE does not want any alternative Tamil voice. In fact LTTE was born in 1975 and they started their killing spree by killing Jaffna Mayor Mr Alfred Dureyappa.
Finally…
Ethnic problem in SL is wrapped by LTTEs terrorism to achieve their objectives. LTTE could only survive until Tamils are deprived and crushed - that is exactly what LTTE being doing for last couple of decades. Simply put, there is a terrorism problem in Sri Lanka to address, once resolved to an acceptable/manageable level only we see the gravity of the ethnic issue. Until terrorism is wrapped it is hard to endow with legitimate long lasting solution coz democracies' survival depends on the transparency.
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